The Stargate wafer deal is the detail most people are missing. Locking up raw undiced capacity means this isnt a demand spike but a fundamental reshaping of supply chains. I've seen similar patterns in enterprise procurement where manufactuers redesign around high-margin customers. Once the tooling and relationships shift, returning to consumer markets becomes economically irrational even when AI demand cools.
Exactly. The raw wafer detail is what makes this different from every previous shortage. They're not buying inventory, they're buying capacity itself.
The enterprise procurement parallel is spot on. Once Samsung and SK Hynix retool their relationships and contracts around hyperscaler customers, the consumer channel becomes an afterthought they tolerate, not a market they serve.
Micron exiting Crucial is the canary. They did the math and decided retail margins aren't worth the operational complexity anymore.
The Stargate wafer deal is the detail most people are missing. Locking up raw undiced capacity means this isnt a demand spike but a fundamental reshaping of supply chains. I've seen similar patterns in enterprise procurement where manufactuers redesign around high-margin customers. Once the tooling and relationships shift, returning to consumer markets becomes economically irrational even when AI demand cools.
Exactly. The raw wafer detail is what makes this different from every previous shortage. They're not buying inventory, they're buying capacity itself.
The enterprise procurement parallel is spot on. Once Samsung and SK Hynix retool their relationships and contracts around hyperscaler customers, the consumer channel becomes an afterthought they tolerate, not a market they serve.
Micron exiting Crucial is the canary. They did the math and decided retail margins aren't worth the operational complexity anymore.